[Delta]log(Ind Prod) = [summation of] [[Alpha].sub.1i][Delta] log[(IndProd).sub.t - i] where 1 to 15 + [summation of] [[Beta].sub.1i][Delta]log[(
Leading Indicator).sub.t - i] where 1 to 15 + [[Gamma].sub.1a](log [Leading Indicator.sub.t - 16] - [[Gamma].sub.1b] log [Ind Prod.sub.t - 16]) (1)
All of the
leading indicator indexes mentioned above share an important characteristic: they are constructed as a weighted average of a fixed set of indicators.
The National Customer Satisfaction Index (NCSI) can be used as a
leading indicator predicting stock index and unemployment rates in advance, given they are correlative, according to the Korea Productivity Center (KPC) surveying one of Korea's major consumer satisfaction indexes.
It tracks 35 data points from ABC 2015 STEP participants to determine the correlation between implementing
leading indicator use and lagging indicator performance, which is measured by the Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) and Days Away and Restricted or Transferred (DART) rate.
Consumer spending is a
leading indicator of total construction spending.
As the accompanying chart, "Two ways to look at inflation," shows, the measurement based on the same month last year tends to be a
leading indicator. That is, it tends to show where the 12-month average will head in the coming months.
However, seven of the eight components that make up New Hampshire's
Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in May: unemployment claims, building permits, exports, consumer expectations (regional), stock prices (national), interest rate spread and technology index (national).
The prospects for the world's major developed economies improved further in July according to a monthly
leading indicator of growth compiled by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, while emerging markets continued to lose steam.
The Department of Education calls the measure a "
leading indicator," a reasonable label given the documented relationship between absence rates measured at the teacher level and student achievement.
The Paris-based forecaster said its
leading indicator measure for the UK rose by 0.3 points to 96.6 in March, with any increasing number below 100 representing recovery.
NAR's Commercial
Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity index slipped 0.1 percent to an index of 120.6 in the third quarter of 2007 from a record reading of 120.7 in the second quarter, but remains 0.7 percent higher than the third quarter of 2006, when it stood at 119.7, according to NAR.